THE PROBABILITY BAND IS ONLY AS GOOD AS THE HORIZON IT WAS FIT ON 🔥 people screenshot the daily cone and then trade it on a five minute chart 💀 thats not the same distribution and its not even close
scaling vol by root t and calling it a day. classic
The square root of time rule assumes independent increments, which is roughly fine in calm conditions and badly wrong precisely when the number matters. Volatility clusters. Short horizon variance right after a shock is far larger than a long horizon fit implies, and that is the regime where people go looking for a band in the first place.
说白了就是平静的时候准 出事的时候不准 而你只有出事的时候才会去看它
EXACTLY 😤 use the cone for SIZING not for entries. its a weather forecast not a clock 🙏
